Using Forecasting Models to Predict Foot Traffic
July 14, 2022 by Judi Pickell
Policy/Legislative
Walkable cities have proven economic, public health, and social benefits. Yet, the planning profession lacks practical methods for predicting how new development proposals affect walkability patterns.
How can planners predict foot traffic from a given development? In “Estimating Pedestrian Flows on Street Networks,” (Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 87, No. 4), author Andres Sevtsuk proposes a model for determining pedestrian activity that accounts for pedestrian behavior under different circumstances such as accounting for time of day and potential “detours.”
Sevtsuk’s model helps fill in gaps in vehicular-centric traffic forecasting and implements a free Urban Network Analysis software tool, where pedestrian flows can be adjusted to different contexts using six key components:
- Pedestrian flows can be separated for different types of origin and destination points, allowing planners to calculate trips from nearby homes to a transit station, for example.
- Pedestrian flows can be limited to a chosen search radius, which determines the maximum “distance between origins and destinations.” For example, if planners want to determine how many people may walk home from a new transit station, the search radius variable limits the study to only those homes that are within a certain distance.
- Pedestrian flows can be modeled along all “plausible” routes instead of only the shortest route by using a detour ratio variable, which allows paths to deviate a certain length longer than the shortest path. For example, if an individual prefers to take fewer turns on their route, they may opt for a longer path out of personal preference.
- Trip generation from given origins can be controlled by an origin weight. This variable allows planners to factor in how larger residential buildings will generate more trips to a transit station than a single-family home.
- The diminishing likelihood to walk to a destination is controlled by adding a distance decay term, which adjusts how the probability of going to destinations depends on their proximity.
- When competing destinations are available for the same trip type, destination probabilities are assigned using the Huff Model based on destination accessibilities. For example, people may not always choose the closest restaurant, because a farther restaurant offers the type of food they desire. Sevtsuk’s adjustment accounts for both “the proximity and attractiveness” of these destinations.
The connections made between traditional traffic impact analyses and foot traffic patterns make this work extremely valuable for urban planning discussions around walkability. This importance is demonstrated in Sevtsuk’s application of his model to a case study of Kendall Square in Cambridge, Massachusetts. By calibrating his model to Kendall Square, Sevtsuk demonstrates how his model can estimate current and predict future foot traffic patterns that result from land-use changes.
Figure 4. Estimated change in foot traffic around Kendall Square due to redevelopment. Values indicate an increase or decrease in pedestrians during the evening peak period (4–8 p.m.).
Although the application of this model was described and limited to the context of Kendall Square, Sevtsuk discusses important applications this model may have, including the potential for citywide pedestrian flow models that developers can plug their projects into and help determine frontage usage and how public spaces support the existing pedestrian networks.
His proposed approach can be particularly useful in countering vehicle-centric traffic decisions because estimating pedestrian movement helps understand development impact, while also identifying pedestrian routes that may serve as locations for increased investment in public space infrastructure.
The Journal of the American Planning Association is the quarterly journal of record for the planning profession. For full access to the JAPA archive, APA members may purchase a discounted digital subscription for $36/year.
Top image: Interface (MIT)
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Recent News
- Utah County Planners Tour
- APAUT AWARDS – Call For Nominations
- “Walkable City” Book Discussion at APA Utah Fall Conference 22
- A Coordinated Approach to Managing Growth and Planning for Capital Improvements
- Don’t Pause the Gas Tax, Redirect It
- Awards Spotlight: Three Creeks Confluence
- Awards Spotlight: Eagle Mountain Parks, Trails, & Open Space Master Plan
- Awards Spotlight: Lindon City 700 N. Small Area Plan
- TALKING TO UTAHNS ABOUT GROWTH VALUES MESSAGING GUIDE
- Awards Spotlight: University of Utah Research Park Strategic Vision
- Awards Spotlight: Embracing the Mutha River: An Urban Design Study of Sustainable Futures
- Award Spotlight: Listening to Multicultural Communities: The Case for Equity during COVID-19
- Using Forecasting Models to Predict Foot Traffic
- Award Spotlight: North Davis County Active Transportation Implementation Plan
- Brainstorming: Ukraine’s Post War Reconstruction
- Awards Spotlight: Utah Valley Visioning
- Award Spotlight: Mid Valley ATP
- How a new website may influence Wasatch Mountain planning
- CLAMOR IS KING –PART II
- Award Spotlight: Interlocal Sustainability Action Plan
- Let’s Change the Process to Change Our Zoning: A Response to State and Federal Zoning Controls
- Award Spotlight: South Salt Lake General Plan Update
- Hey, Utahns—stop driving your car
- Award Spotlight: 2020 Kearns General Plan and Resilience + Infrastructure Element
- Art as Daily Experience in Ogden’s Nine Rails Creative District
- Award Spotlight: Salt Lake City Reimagines Nature
- LET’S TALK! AND TALK. AND TALK SOME MORE…
- A Minnesota Judge Throws the Book at Immoral Tax Assessments
- The Great Rebalance
- To Fully Observe, We Need to Walk
- Study reveals that Utah housing prices have increased 200% in two decades
- DOUBLE WHAMMY
- The Office of the Property Rights Ombudsman
- Gov. Cox hails ‘generational’ effort in Utah’s water law history
- Clamor is King
- Utah Is Building a ’15-Minute City’ From Scratch
- Quality of Life – A Dishonest Approach to Change in Neighborhood Character
- Changing the Rules of Zoning
- Growth & Change In the West: 2022 RMLUI Conference Recap
- Vernacular Is Beautiful—If We Would Just Allow It
- APAUT Spring Conference Follow-up and Pictures
- To Airbnb or Not to Airbnb
- The Costs of Wide Streets in the U.S.
- APAUT President’s Message – March 2022
- How should we decide the fate of Utah Lake?
- How the Utah Legislature continues to usurp power from city and county government
- What to know about residential care facilities in your neighborhood
- University of Utah Professor Named the 3rd Most Cited Planning Faculty in the World
- TWO BIG BILLS OUT
- Examining the Impact of London’s Mandatory Inclusionary Housing
- May We all Grow Together: Cultivating Support for Utah’s Emerging Planners
- A Commitment to Change
- Okay Boomer
- APAUT Book Discussion: Evicted by Matthew Desmond
- Economic Development After the Rise of Telework
- Follow the 2022 Legislative Session
- After the Bennett Freeze: Planning Within the Navajo Nation
- Flexible Zoning for the New Economy
- Lead and Inspire with Purpose: AICP Code of Ethics Update
- Janet Quinney Lawson – Institute for Land, Water & Air
- Emerging Planners Survey
- Plan to restore Utah Lake met with resistance from Utah County conservation groups
- New Murray projects and guidelines move forward as moratorium ends
- From the Office of Dodge, Wiggle, Hack, Shrug & DeCamp, LLC
- Land Use Training
- Paul Allred: Career Reflections & Valuable Advice – Part 3
- Cache Summit 2021
- WAVE HIKING PERMIT CHANGES ON THE WAY
- Paul Allred: Career Reflections & Valuable Advice (Part 2)
- Paul Allred: Career Reflections & Valuable Advice
- UDOT seeks public input on rural Utah transportation plans
- Electric Vehicles Are on the Rise. Is Your Community Ready?
- Call for Award Nominations
- Fifteen-Minute City
- Remember Olympia Hills?
- The Mountain Lions: these nine cities boomed in the COVID era
- AS PLANNERS, WHY DO WE DO WHAT WE DO, AND WHY ARE WE DOING IT?
- Andrea Garfinkel-Castro, doctoral candidate, “Unpacks” Latino Urbanism
- 11 Ways To Excel Ethically At Every Level
- Asset-Based Community Development (ABCD): core principles
- A Tale of Two Walks: Part 2
- Heat, Health & Equity: The Effects of High Temperatures on Health, and Ways to Mitigate Heat in Our City
- Help Shape Equity Planning Policy
- DO CITIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO BAN FIREWORKS?
- Air Quality Is Better In Utah Today Than Ten Years Ago, But…
- Layton council adopts water-saving landscaping requirements for most new development
- CAREFUL WHOM YOU CALL A NIMBY
- Considering A National Infrastructure Bank
- HEALTHY UTAH COMMUNITY
- Breaking Down Silos: The Inception of the Utah Rural Coordinating Council
- MAG Transit Studies
- Effective Public Engagement Requires a Lot More Than a Public Hearing
- Is Remote Work Here to Stay?
- SENSITIVE LANDS PLANNING: PROTECTING PUBLIC HEALTH, SAFETY, AND WELFARE FOR GENERATIONS TO COME
- Bond Ratings are for Investors (Not Taxpayers)
- It’s Complicated (Ok, you’ve heard that before, but maybe not for this topic – billboards.)
- The Color of Law APAUT Online Book Discussion
- The American Jobs Plan Will Make Our Infrastructure Crisis Worse
- President’s Infrastructure Proposal Includes Addressing Housing Affordability
- We Cannot Plan from Our Desks
- Rep. Curtis, Sen. Romney introduce bill to advance the Bonneville Shoreline Trail
- Utah could lose out on billions in federal funding for passenger rail
- The Cure for the Wasatch Front’s Housing Crisis: More Affordable Homes Between North Salt Lake and Lehi
- Ambassador Program Update
- Local Needs Among Utah’s Multicultural Communities During the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Campus Mobility Hub Study – APAUT Award Winner
- Does Building New Housing Reduce Overall Housing Costs?
- Layton Forward – Layton City’s Comprehensive General Plan Update
- Spring Conference Postponed, Book Club, President’s Message
- Presidents Message
- Lehi Connectivity Standards – A Stronger Urban Fabric
- Housing First; Cars Last
- UDOT Bike Infrastructure Data Collection Project
- The Great Horizon Year of 2020
- Density is a Loaded Term
- New Study on Housing Affordability Focuses on Local Land Use Practices
- There is no such thing as ‘smart sprawl’
- Legislative Interim Committee – What You Need To Know
- A bipartisan opportunity to rebuild American infrastructure
- Zoning laws aren’t the only things hindering Utah’s housing market
- Congratulations to the APAUT 2020 Award Winners
- State and Local Governments Must Further Address Housing Affordability
- The Status of Women Leaders in Government – Utah Cities and Towns
- We have to do something about Utah’s housing crisis
- What the Wasatch Front needs is more basement apartments
- Cities Don’t Need High-Rises to Become Affordable
- Away from the bustle: Covid-19 and the end of commuterland
- The Color of Law: A Book Review
- (Contract) Zoning by Agreement in Utah
- Zoning Reform Is Not Leftism
- “The Great Localization” COVID-19 and Opportunities for Communities
- Missing Middle Housing: Thinking Big and Building Small to Respond to Today’s Housing Crisis
- Zoning Reform – English Style
- 3 Stories Show the Flip Side Of Zoning Reform
- APAUT Call to Action
- The Politics of Housing Affordability
- Zoning, Affordability, and COVID-19
- Where do we go NOW!? – President’s Message
- An Interview With Ashley Cleveland, MCMP
- The Importance of Sense of Place in our Communities
- An Answer to the Suburban Growth Dilemma
- Homeless to Housed Fall 2019
- A New Initiative: Children’s Walks